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Lampyridae

Campaign Lead Discussion

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I've reposted this from the IC forum to actually get everyone to look at their strategic standings. Currently it looks like Ariadna has an assured victory in the game since PanO does not appear to be contesting the EXO Orbase. Haqq and Tohaa depend on being able to take a location. Not contesting locations is a mistake. Forget the bugs, the Exrah Carrier will be blown up by fluff power. Consider your strategic directions for the next campaign (which means you may get shafted in terms of fluff signalling the way Nomads had Shasvastii smugglers).

Taking a location earns 1 point, holding a location is +0.5 (regardless of duration), losing a location is -1. Small factions get a +0.5 bonus based on their relative performance.

Ariadna: 1 location held, 1 taken. +1.5

Haqqislam: 1 location held, 1 taken. +1.5

Tohaa: 0 locations lost, 1 taken. Small faction bonus. +1.5

PanO: 2 locations held, 0 taken. +1

ALEPH: 1 location lost, 1 taken. Small faction bonus. +0.5

Combined Army: 0 locations taken. Small faction bonus. +0.5

Nomads: 2 locations held, 1 lost. 0

Yujing: 2 locations lost, 1 held, 0 taken. -1.5

 

Of the three at the top, Ariadna is best poised to take the strategic lead, thanks to having taken over "security duties" at ALEPH's ECHO module - a fact for which the O-12 will likely invoke some kind of retribution, despite ALEPH's best greasy explanations from their sexiest Devas. PanO is unwilling to try and hold the location which means that Ariadna has already won the conflict if PanO has won the conflict. Right now, ALEPH have to contend with losing another location which will put them into negative territory and which would potentially hand Tohaa a win - they are the star underdogs. Yu Jing does not have much hope right now. If they do nothing and Haqq takes the Consulate again, they will certainly be the losers. If PanO loses their Orbase, they will hand Ariadna a win and put them in the bottom 3. Nomads have no hope of winning, but will need to at least hold their own position to get out out of the bottom 3. Combined Army is obviously looking to take at least one location whilst holding their carrier (potentially a full point for them if they do).

 

It appears that this is how BoW and CB are judging performance at Wotan, seeing as none of the secret objectives were awarded. Those may be scaled back but we don't know how much the threshold was or the timeframe. ALEPH "agreeing" to cede their location to Ariadna has no meaning in campaign terms. All arrangements are informal and what matters are points.

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Interesting analysis.

It all makes sense... assuming you are correct about the values assigned to the various factions.

If you are incorrect (and especially if holding one location 'through multiple phases counts for additional points, which it may well) then things look quite different.

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20 minutes ago, AdmiralJCJF said:

Interesting analysis.

It all makes sense... assuming you are correct about the values assigned to the various factions.

If you are incorrect (and especially if holding one location 'through multiple phases counts for additional points, which it may well) then things look quite different.

That's the thing I was unsure of. I'm going at this from an outcomes-based analysis, as in "what will CB consider to be worth assigning a point to." Since there was no action done to protect or defend, a faction could sit on a location and simply win points through being ignored, as Haqqislam would have done just sitting on Ilik and being quiet.

I could be wrong about losing a location, that could be -0.5 or maybe -0.75 to encourage aggression, but since that fact was never communicated to us I think they are merely looking at it from a "balancing the spreadsheets" approach.

I think the actual analysis will involve total points scored, hence the arbitrary small faction bonus I included. However, I still think that a qualitative assessment will show that Ariadna is a star performer and ALEPH screwed up by thinking another power could just take over with no consequences. That strategic decision, along with Tohaa and Haqq being ignored, as well as the Nomads' abortive attempt to take Baijing after being so worn out defending La Forja, has resulted in the balance of power.

I will try some other analyses, but I can't see "holding a location" as ever being equivalent to taking another one in terms of campaign rewards.

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29 minutes ago, Lampyridae said:

I will try some other analyses, but I can't see "holding a location" as ever being equivalent to taking another one in terms of campaign rewards.

Then you are arguing that they deliberately set up their two most popular factions with a close to zero chance of succeeding in the campaign.

That seems... unlikely.

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Combined isn't a small faction. They're larger in terms of commanders than Ariadna and have more battle reports registered than Haqq. I'd say they are clearly fourth largest, closely followed by Haqq, meaning only Tohaa and Aleph deserves any size bonuses. Combined might've gotten sidelined by being pitched alone against Pan-O - but that doesn't mean they are small compared to Yu Jing or Haqq. After all, Pan-O is so large that if Tohaa gets a bonus for size, Pan-O should get an equal penalty. Meanwhile, Aleph's numbers are so small that even with their remarkably good win:loss, they barely register.

An interesting tidbit; only roughly 35% of battlereports are linked

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18 minutes ago, AdmiralJCJF said:

Then you are arguing that they deliberately set up their two most popular factions with a close to zero chance of succeeding in the campaign.

That seems... unlikely.

Factoring for holding twice, it doesn't make that much of a difference. Increasing the "hold" reward just means that PanO could sit on the two Sygtir platforms and slide on their butts to victory (0.75 would put them neck and neck with Ariadna, who have arguably outperformed). A holding location bonus also penalises factions with no starting locations (specifically Tohaa who waited til Phase 3).

Holding 2 phases counts, 0.5 points each phase.

Ariadna: 1 location held (2 phases), 1 taken. +2.5

Haqqislam: 1 location held (2 phases), 1 taken. +2.5

PanO: 2 locations held (2 phases), 0 taken. +2

Tohaa: 0 locations lost, 1 taken. Small faction bonus. +1.5

ALEPH: 1 location lost, 1 taken. Small faction bonus. +0.5

Combined Army: 0 locations taken. Small faction bonus. +0.5

Nomads: 2 locations held (1 phase), 1 lost. 0

Yujing: 2 locations lost, 1 held (1 phase), 0 taken. -1.5

As you can see, factoring in the extra phase gives a lift to PanO, but any strike against the Exrah Carrier will be negated by losing the Orbase and Ariadna still has a lead.

 

18 minutes ago, Mahtamori said:

Combined isn't a small faction. They're larger in terms of commanders than Ariadna and have more battle reports registered than Haqq. I'd say they are clearly fourth largest, closely followed by Haqq, meaning only Tohaa and Aleph deserves any size bonuses. Combined might've gotten sidelined by being pitched alone against Pan-O - but that doesn't mean they are small compared to Yu Jing or Haqq. After all, Pan-O is so large that if Tohaa gets a bonus for size, Pan-O should get an equal penalty. Meanwhile, Aleph's numbers are so small that even with their remarkably good win:loss, they barely register.

An interesting tidbit; only roughly 35% of battlereports are linked

Well, they get a small faction bonus simply because they get no points for holding locations until Phase 3. And CB/BoW will know that everyone throws everything including the kitchen sink at them if they try to take a location. So their scoring is the most uncertain, I will admit. Technically, they will "win" the campaign because the blockade must be broken to progress the story anyway. Even if they abandon their ship and PanO lands 1000 points on it, there will still be "Shasvastii seed-soldiers infiltrate to Svalharmeia."

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Just now, Lampyridae said:

Well, they get a small faction bonus simply because they get no points for holding locations until Phase 3. And CB/BoW will know that everyone throws everything including the kitchen sink at them if they try to take a location. So their scoring is the most uncertain, I will admit. Technically, they will "win" the campaign because the blockade must be broken to progress the story anyway. Even if they abandon their ship and PanO lands 1000 points on it, there will still be "Shasvastii seed-soldiers infiltrate to Svalharmeia."

I understand the reasoning, but if you give a faction a bonus for not having to defend a location, take a look at Yu Jing who gets heavily penalized for having to defend two. Now, yes, this is just you presenting a rough metric, and this discussion doesn't really change anything, but I'm just saying that I think there's a significantly lower hurdle for Combined to get over than what we as players might imagine. It will be interesting to see if a Combined location actually gets nuked from orbit by battlereports, or if the general playerbase will keep fighting their own battles, but right now they don't have to defend anything and wouldn't be penalized in campaign terms if they start performing like Yu Jing has done so far.

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44 minutes ago, Mahtamori said:

I understand the reasoning, but if you give a faction a bonus for not having to defend a location, take a look at Yu Jing who gets heavily penalized for having to defend two. Now, yes, this is just you presenting a rough metric, and this discussion doesn't really change anything, but I'm just saying that I think there's a significantly lower hurdle for Combined to get over than what we as players might imagine. It will be interesting to see if a Combined location actually gets nuked from orbit by battlereports, or if the general playerbase will keep fighting their own battles, but right now they don't have to defend anything and wouldn't be penalized in campaign terms if they start performing like Yu Jing has done so far.


Well, Nomads have been "penalised" 4 times in a row for having fresh locations to defend. Yu Jing has only had 3 fresh locations. PanO has had 2 locations over 2 phases and 1 fresh location. It's clear from tone of the updtates that if you have fewer locations to defend you are expected to go on the offensive.

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Everyone is expected to go on the offensive at some point to some degree. 

Everyone has advantages and disadvantages, some of which are not from the campaign's layout, but the main thing that you haven't accounted for is that there are a lot of spam, essentially content free reports on a couple of key theatres here and there, which are likely to swing points towards other factions. Ariadna won't lose out on any of them(no matter how much salty players throw low ratings at results they don't like), but the nomads are very likely to gain on one... 

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According to @Beasts of War - Warren there is not a lot of spam this time round, and everyone has more or less the same amount. We expect to lose a few reports to spam, and we want to know more than anyone else so that we get an idea of our true standing.

Agreed, I don't see how the take/lose situations are going to change with spam. Most of the locations were won by large margins, with as you mention, the possible exception of ALEPH taking the Dong, which had a last-minute flood of spam reports. Is it enough to tip the balance? Who knows. So I've written that location off. It might even fall into the threshold of a draw, if there is such a thing. Regardless of the outcome, ALEPH has in effect handed Ariadna the lead - their fluff enemies. I honestly don't know what they were thinking.

Yu Jing is currently in the worst position, and I would like to see them unleash some kind of offensive and regain some honour if not points. Haqq and Tohaa are prime targets, and they may or may not go after Nomads. So at least 2 factions will be forced to defend turf and 1 will be on the offensive anyway. ALEPH will have to respond to Tohaa or go down like a lead balloon. The CA will certainly be hitting the location they think is the weakest. IMO that will be the Orbase, because the Ariadnan offensive (so far) has ground to a screeching halt and PanO will probably not try take it back for a while. If I were the Bugs, I would hit left and right, forcing factions to drop points on their own locations trying to defend them.

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There are at least 5 or 6 aleph wins on the Peyotte that are very questionable, no text, no lists and stock pictures, I'm fairly confident the Nomads will shake them off (remember more than 2 and it's playing with yourself). As for the Ariadnan offensive "grinding to a halt" that was one day, you'll have to compare the results over more than a few hours...

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4 hours ago, Lampyridae said:

I've reposted this from the IC forum to actually get everyone to look at their strategic standings. Currently it looks like Ariadna has an assured victory in the game since PanO does not appear to be contesting the EXO Orbase. Haqq and Tohaa depend on being able to take a location. Not contesting locations is a mistake. Forget the bugs, the Exrah Carrier will be blown up by fluff power. Consider your strategic directions for the next campaign (which means you may get shafted in terms of fluff signalling the way Nomads had Shasvastii smugglers).

Taking a location earns 1 point, holding a location is +0.5 (regardless of duration), losing a location is -1. Small factions get a +0.5 bonus based on their relative performance.

Ariadna: 1 location held, 1 taken. +1.5

Haqqislam: 1 location held, 1 taken. +1.5

Tohaa: 0 locations lost, 1 taken. Small faction bonus. +1.5

PanO: 2 locations held, 0 taken. +1

ALEPH: 1 location lost, 1 taken. Small faction bonus. +0.5

Combined Army: 0 locations taken. Small faction bonus. +0.5

Nomads: 2 locations held, 1 lost. 0

Yujing: 2 locations lost, 1 held, 0 taken. -1.5

 

Of the three at the top, Ariadna is best poised to take the strategic lead, thanks to having taken over "security duties" at ALEPH's ECHO module - a fact for which the O-12 will likely invoke some kind of retribution, despite ALEPH's best greasy explanations from their sexiest Devas. PanO is unwilling to try and hold the location which means that Ariadna has already won the conflict if PanO has won the conflict. Right now, ALEPH have to contend with losing another location which will put them into negative territory and which would potentially hand Tohaa a win - they are the star underdogs. Yu Jing does not have much hope right now. If they do nothing and Haqq takes the Consulate again, they will certainly be the losers. If PanO loses their Orbase, they will hand Ariadna a win and put them in the bottom 3. Nomads have no hope of winning, but will need to at least hold their own position to get out out of the bottom 3. Combined Army is obviously looking to take at least one location whilst holding their carrier (potentially a full point for them if they do).

 

It appears that this is how BoW and CB are judging performance at Wotan, seeing as none of the secret objectives were awarded. Those may be scaled back but we don't know how much the threshold was or the timeframe. ALEPH "agreeing" to cede their location to Ariadna has no meaning in campaign terms. All arrangements are informal and what matters are points.

In fluff terms, Yu Jing underperforming means that it is likely that the Carrier will make a successful breakthrough. As a hyperpower, they must pick up their game.

I am not versed in the mechanics but according to this, the scores should be different. Ariadna held the Don Peyote for the first few days of phase one. That should count as a .5. The CA also took Stygir for a brief period (if the final numbers hold out, I don't remeber) so they have .5 going into phase 3. not sure how to count the Haqq and tohaa gains vs YJ. Going strictly by the rules above they could get multiple take over bonuses in phase two (as the locations changed hands).

So interesting to see the mechanics but more questions on how scoring works before we can have a good idea of standings

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ALEPH has human enemies?

ALEPH doesn't think so. If Ariadna wins, then humans win, so ALEPH wins. If PanO wins, then humanity wins, so ALEPH wins. If aliens win, then humanity loses, so ALEPH loses.

"ALEPH has handed Ariadna the win, their fluff enemies."

no

"ALEPH has handed Ariadna the win, their human allies."

Your assessment of ALEPHs performance assumes a quest for dominance over the other human factions. There is none. The ALEPH player base has taken their role as obedient servants and protectors of humanity to the utmost. There is almost no regard for their own wellbeing in their desire to accomplish their assigned goals.

If ALEPH wanted to win this campaign for itself, then yes your analysis of their actions would be correct. Winning this campaign is not its goal.

It wants to root out the alien menace and protect humans from their existential threats, with very limited resources.

There has been no mistake.

If ALEPH does not increase its standing in the next campaign or in the fluff, it doesn't matter to them if by the end, humanity is safe.

+1, -1, +.5 ?

Meh.

They'll suffer the consequences gladly and still feel like they've won.

If by your assessment you have determined that ALEPH has some ability to determine which human faction wins, maybe improving relations with them in the future is a good strategy?

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@Longthyme yes but this is a campaign. Whether we are orks or Rebels or the United Federation of Planets, makes no difference. These are the key events in this campaign and I've put them all up so people can comment and adapt their faction priorities if need be.

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If you win in any scenario except a Combined victory then feel free to sit at home with your slippers on for phase 3. No need to post any spam battle reports whatsoever. 

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I appreciate your work in gathering the data, @Lampyridae. It will surely be a strong resource for most factions. Thank you.

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@Longthyme it's a pleasure. I will try and do a better 'costing' based on faction sizes, win ratios etc to try and get a better 'feel.' But I can tell you now that a lot will depend on what territories the various factions grab. The one to watch out for is Yu Jing, of course. I think they are the least 'depleted' faction in terms of player resources and have the most to gain.

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The only that need to go home are the FAKE REPORT SPAMMERS! 

The rest keep fighting... this war it's far from over and this is just an speculation, the campaign ends on 2 weeks not today. still far from over! 

And remember this is a NARRATIVE CAMPAIGN we all win if the narrative goes right 

Post like this will put away players.... and we want more involved fighting for their cause and having fun that an early Defeatism 

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I guess you all understand why we're attacking PanO now, eh? ;) 

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4 minutes ago, Pride of Rodina said:

I guess now you all understand why we're attacking PanO now, eh? ;) 

Yes sure you are being attacked by pano at your module zoo, ... EXO its a panoceania shopping mall... you miss the spikey alien ship @Pride of Rodina 

WE GET ALL THE GLORY and you take twinkies and maybe get a cheap cube on Purple Sunday discounts. 

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Just now, Luisjoey said:

Yes sure you are being attacked by pano at your module zoo, ... EXO its a panoceania shopping mall... you miss the spikey alien ship @Pride of Rodina 

WE GET ALL THE GLORY and you take twinkies and maybe get a cheap cube on Purple Sunday discounts. 

*shrug* I'm not really a fan of Twinkies. I personally really enjoy those Cosmic Brownies, those are great!

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Just now, Pride of Rodina said:

*shrug* I'm not really a fan of Twinkies. I personally really enjoy those Cosmic Brownies, those are great!

I would invade whole DAWN just because it's the only site on the galaxy that still produces twinkies ! @Pride of Rodina

 

 

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1 hour ago, Longthyme said:

ALEPH has human enemies?

ALEPH doesn't think so. If Ariadna wins, then humans win, so ALEPH wins. If PanO wins, then humanity wins, so ALEPH wins. If aliens win, then humanity loses, so ALEPH loses.

"ALEPH has handed Ariadna the win, their fluff enemies."

no

"ALEPH has handed Ariadna the win, their human allies."

Your assessment of ALEPHs performance assumes a quest for dominance over the other human factions. There is none. The ALEPH player base has taken their role as obedient servants and protectors of humanity to the utmost. There is almost no regard for their own wellbeing in their desire to accomplish their assigned goals.

If ALEPH wanted to win this campaign for itself, then yes your analysis of their actions would be correct. Winning this campaign is not its goal.

It wants to root out the alien menace and protect humans from their existential threats, with very limited resources.

There has been no mistake.

If ALEPH does not increase its standing in the next campaign or in the fluff, it doesn't matter to them if by the end, humanity is safe.

Don't mind me, i'm just passing by.

Can you please explain how seizing control of "Don Pejote" (a total CA-Free location) improved the chances of success of Humanity against CA?

if Aleph was so determined to "help" Human Sphere against CA, why no war action was taken against CA during entire phase 1? and during phase 2?

Why no action against Tohaa? (another small faction, which you can take head to head)

 

I mean, there is no problem with saying "We want to screw Nomads/Haqq/somebody up" but since this is a OOC thread, can you please explain?

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As an aside, I did a kind of rough estimate on calculating campaign points and this is how I did it:

You get one point for each zone you own in the end of each Phase and you get one point for each objective you've completed (Bostria informed me that secret objectives were worth the same as controlling zones, as I am the faction liaison and asked him). Since no one has completed their own objectives, this is how I counted up the points:

PanO - 4
Nomads - 3
Ariadna - 3
Haqqislam - 3
Yu Jing - 2
Tohaa - 1
ALEPH - 0
Combined Army - 0

I asked Bostria to confirm this a day ago and still haven't heard back from him. In fact, the campaign is still anyone's game. No need for defeatism yet :) 

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Alternatively the points might be assigned based on the theatres as shown on the front page, which would mean that PanOceania, haqqislam,  and Ariadna only have 2 points at the moment, while the nomads still have 3...

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